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Entries in Westminster (4)

Sunday
08Feb2009

Scotland can replace nuclear with green energy

The Scotsman reports today on the internal divisions in the Labour party in Scotland over their submission to the Calman Commission. It seems the Scots MPs (including Gordon Brown) want to take back planning powers from Holyrood, whereas the Scots MSPs want to keep them. This despite a poll that shows more and more support in Scotland for indepenance. Talk about putting yourself on the wrong side of the debate!

Essentially, it seems the Westminster Labour party MP's have taken the huff. They still want to build new nuclear plants, whilst there's a measure of agreement in Holyrood that Scots would be better investing in renewable energy.

The same old tired nonsense about Holyrood risking security of supply by blocking new nuclear is rehashed in the Scotsman. So, let's try and figure this out once and for all:

  1. Total Gross renewables installed in Scotland in 2001: 4202 GWh (10% of total consumption)
  2. Total Gross renewables installed in Scotland in 2007: 8226 GWh (20% of total consumption)
  3. Total Gross nuclear power generation has never been more than 18681 GW (or  37.9 % of total  consumption) over the same period.
  4. There's two nuclear power stations in Scotland, one is due to close in 2016 and the other 2023.
  5. 2007 Number of households: 2314,000 . Estimated 2023 number of households 2625,000 (13% more). We could assume we'll consume an extra 2428.5 GWh in 2023, but when you look at the stats you can see that actually Scotlands consumption has hovered around 50,000 GWh over the last 7 years. Lets be optimistic and assume that our efforts to boost our efficiency will maintain this static trend.
  6. Assuming that the nuclear reactors generate 50% of the total nuclear output each, in 2016, renewables will need to replace roughly 9000 GWh of capacity, when the first reactor closes.
  7. We've managed to add 4000GWh in the last 6 years. We'll need to add almost another 8000 GWh to meet the the SNP's 31% from renewables target by 2011 -  that'll take us to roughly 15,500GWh. The Scottish Government seem confident that currently consented renewables developments will meet that target. It therefore seems safe to assume we can handle the closure of the first one of the nuclear reactors.
  8. Looking onwards to 2023, even with a slowing growth rate in the easy to install stuff - like onshore wind, it looks like we can install another 9000Gwh of capacity.

Conclusion? Labour MP's are frustrated over the fact that their Westminster green policies are clearly mince, and are trying to find a way of scunnering Holyrood as it becomes clear that it's doing a better job of greening the scots economy than Westminster is - even with limited influence over the regulatory environment.

Of course, the energy policy debate is not simply one of nuclear vs renewables. Scotland relies on coal and gas for a large part of its electricity supplies too, and cutting electricity demand should really be the starting point for all of this. And what are the SNP proposing to do about those issues? If the last budget is anything to go by the answer is pretty much nothing. But that's a different question.

I just wanted to make it clear that if Holyrood can carry on supporting the growth of more renewables, as we're doing at the moment, we don't need new nuclear in Scotland and there'll be no risk to security of supply issues.

 

Friday
17Oct2008

Patter Swap

Nats seem to get all annoyed when people accuse them of being in bed with the Tories.  But if Alex Salmond  can't come up with any  new chat of his own, and borrows George Osbornes Tory conference lines about 'the age of irresponsibility' for the SNP conference, you can't blame people for putting 2 + 2 together and getting tartan Tories can you?

In a similar vain I was amused to hear the LibDems environment spokesman in Westminster, Steve Webb, comments on the exclusion of air travel and shipping emissions from the proposed UK Climate Change bill. Steve said:'It's like telling everyone you're going on a calorie controlled diet, but not counting cream cakes.'

Sounds familiar to me.

Is there a reality TV show in this? Er, probably not.

Sunday
17Aug2008

Do they have a grievance department?

I reckon the SNP have created a special department in Victoria Quay for emails from Westminster Manadarins that mention the Scotland Act. Immediately they're vetted, and filed according to issue, and then whenever there's a quiet news day, a byelection coming up, or leadership election in another party, Scotlands biggest personality cult 'leaks' another batch to the Scottish press with a careful quote from an 'SNP insider,' pointing out Westminster foot dragging.

Well, I say zero tolerance to domestic [political] violence. Alex is going to have to learn to take responsibility for his own actions instead of going back to Westminster for another beating when he's feeling low. Crying to the kids for sympathy won't help. They don't know who to believe. And maybe in years to come they'll turn against him when they realise that he lied to them about his real problems.

Anyway, I've probably taken that too far. In this particular case, I don't care about who's slapping who down or who does the work - I just want to know whether building an interconnector to Norway is actually a feasible idea. Can we afford it? Will it help us to make the most of our renewable energy resources? Will it promote competition in our deregulated energy markets? Is anyone in Westminster or Edinburgh working on answering those questions?

I wonder how long it will be before Scots get tired of this style of grievance politics? However the SNP try to spin these leaks, these underhand tactics from Victoria Quay surely do nothing to build constructive working relationships between the officials of our different levels of government. Are they really acting in the interests of Scots? Or just in the interests of the SNP? 

Wednesday
13Aug2008

This One Is Closer To Home

News that there's to be another Scottish By-election that Labour will have to defend can only up the pressure on Brown, and the Scottish Labour party. With the Lib-dems and Labour still without a leader in Scotland, it looks as though this one could be carried by the SNP's seemingly unstoppable momentum. Recent polls, that have been sliced , diced and seasoned well by other scottish bloggers, seem to indicate that after the Glasgow East earthquake, the SNP should easily be due another win. 

This said, I think there'll be some serious local factors here. Not least, local sympathy for John MacDougall MP who seems to have had more local support after a long battle with serious illness. And whilst I don't know enough about the local politics in Fife to comment, I'm convinced of the point that Ideas of Civilisation makes about the influence of local politics on voting habits.

In Glasgow East, the local Labour party was mired in allegations of sleaze, so they got what they deserved. However, in Fife the SNP/Libdems are in charge of the council. If they've been making cuts that seem to target Labour heartland areas, like the SNP/Libdem coalition in Edinbrugh seems to be doing then I wonder whether that may help to support the Labour vote in this byelection?

Sure, just like everywhere else there is likely to be a massive protest vote in Fife, and the 10,000 lead John MacDougall had over the SNP is going to shrink. Unlike in Glasgow East, the 'protest vote' against Labour is more likely to be split between the LibDems and the SNP, even if the the LibDems don't have a leader. The constituency is more diverse, and Fife has a stronger LibDem vote. If Labour can stand the pressue, put on another slick campaign without imploding completely (which lets face it - is a big if) then I wonder whether they could have more luck here than in Glasgow East? 

A cynic might argue that actually Fife politics is all about which party can build the most toll free bridges into the Kingdom, given that half the people who live there seem to work elsewhere - in Dundee, Edinburgh or even Glasgow. The SNPs track record on tolls and their determination to build a second Forth crossing, even if it's not actually needed might be a vote winner for them, and given the Greens opposition to both of those proposals, they could lose votes on the bridge issue.

Whatever happens it would seem that there'll be a silver lining for folk like me. A Labour hold would wipe the smug smile of David Millibands face. And Alex Salmonds for that matter. Both worth seeing.

On the other hand, another Labour lose to the SNP, would hasten Gordon Browns departure, and it might even strenghten the hand of the the McCabe/Aitken school of thought who think Scottish Labour needs more decentralisation to fight the SNP.  Most people can see that this would mean that Labour might actually function as an opposition, even if the current labour leadership candidates won't come right out and admit it.

Assuming the Scottish Greens stand in this election, I'm hoping that they'll at least keep their deposit this time around.

Anyway, enough idle speculation from me, I suspect this is Doctor Vee's constituency, so it'll be interesting to hear what he has to say.