Only a pure numpty would try to predict the outcome of any by-election, especially the Glasgow East one, especially two weeks before. That's what everyone on TV says just before they give their prediction of what the result will be, so I'm going to copy them, and get my oar stuck in early.

The papers insist that anything could happen but my gut feeling says I'm going to feel like I did when John Major was elected in 1992. Basically, just thoroughly flabbergasted that so many people could vote for the status quo.

Glasgow East is a place where voter apathy is the biggest issue. I meet folk in Glasgow all the time who say without any shred of embarrassment 'Politics? Nah I'm not into that stuff.' But, just like one of the guys in this video who's lived there his whole life, you can't blame people, when nothing does ever change. Labour have run Glasgow for decades and politics is done differently there. To  me it seems like everyone votes Labour, and then the real deals are done by 'big personalities' behind closed doors, in the mysterious web of trade unions, regeneration agencies, religious organisations, and council offices that run Glasgow. Or, if you believe one of my work colleagues, it's actually the other way around, and the voting is just a formality that happens after the decisions have been taken.

The last Scottish elections shook Glasgow up, and for the first time, there is some real local opposition and scrutiny in Glasgow, but it's going to take a long time for that reality to make a difference to the culture in Glasgow. People connected to Labour can still pull strings that other people can't. Sadly, I suspect that getting people in Glasgow East to vote for someone else apart from Labour is just as hard as challenging the culture of smoking, drinking, drug taking and fighting that blights the area. Which is a shame, as there are other parties, like the Greens, who in theory at least, have policies that should appeal to left leaning souls.

The SNP might be predicting an earthquake, but I reckon they'll not be sending anyone new to Westminster. Labour have carefully worked it out so that the voting is timed to coincide with the Glasgow fair holiday. That'll mean it'll only be the apathetic knife wielding Ballieston tongs (who won't vote) and the dyed in the wool red or dead auld folk left in the neighbourhood (who will.)

If you look at the stats then it's pretty clear that the SNP would need all of the Tory, Lib Dem and SSP votes just to come within spitting distance of Labour, and that kind of squeeze is hard to imagine. Of course, weird things happen in byelections, and the turn out will be much smaller, so even if things stand still the SNP will be able to claim they've reduced Labours majority. But I doubt they'll win.

Assuming Labours Margaret Curran does win, I suppose it'll mean political silver linings all around in some senses. Alex Salmond might be happy to see another Scottish Labour heavy weight (ahem) out of the race for the Holyrood Labour Leadership, and so will the other Labour leadership contenders. Not only would she leave the field slightly clearer for them, she'd make the local selection process easier when the Scottish MSP constituency boundaries are redrawn. And let's not forget Gordon Brown will be pretty relieved too - even if she's not his first choice.

That's assuming she quit her MSP post of course. At the moment she seems to be keeping her options open, although she did concede that that having an office in Westminster and Holyrood would be 'unsustainable in the long run.'

It does make you wonder whether Ms Curran reckons Alex Salmond has set a precedent. Could this be the start of worrying trend in Scottish politics - party leaders feeling the need to have a seat in both parliaments? Would Scottish folk stand for it? I hope not. 

To sum up. Labour win, but with a much reduced majority. SNP 2nd (swing from Lib Dems and Tories). Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems Squeezed) and Tories (squeezed, but less so) 3rd and 4th. Greens next. SSP and Solidarity split the socialist vote, consigning themselves to utter pointlessness (again).