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Entries in Greens (8)

Thursday
22Oct2009

Tactically Voting in Edinburgh East? Not Likely!

Because of the first past the post voting system in Westminster - elections throw everyone into the position of having to vote tactically and second guess how everyone else is going to vote. There is of course a general election looming, and so my thoughts have been turning recently - even as a green party member - to whom I should vote for.

Currently, I have Gavin Strang, a Labour MP, whom I've found singularly uninspiring as an MP, although he did at least vote against the Iraq War and replacing Trident. Most recently, I was disappointed to learn he voted against supporting the recent motion to support the 10:10 campaign, although I note that he's listed as being a 'moderate' supporter of climate change legislation on theyworkforyou.com

The trouble is of course, that whilst I want action from Westminster on environmental issues, climate change, and change on voting systems and transparency issues - all things a Green MP would be likely to major on - it's extremely unlikely that the Edinburgh East constituency will elect a Green MP. So, logically, what's to do?

Well, the SNP are alledgedly 'resurgent' in Scotland, and so let's check out their candidate. It's none other than George Kerevan, Scotsman columnist, with no website (OK, there's this blank joomla template). So the only way we can figure out anything he might beleive is through his columns: http://news.scotsman.com/georgekerevan

Oops! Most of those columns are premium content. I'm not so keen to read him that I'm going to pay. Fortunately, the grumpy spindoctor reveals a bit more info. It's not good reading. It turns out George quite likes Nuclear power, to put it mildly. So, I won't be voting for George. In fact, I'd consider voting tactically to stop him.

Sheila Gilmore is set to replace Gavin Strang for Labour, and in previous careers (both hers and mine), I had some dealings with her. And frankly I feel ambivalent about her. Neither inspired, nor offensive, I remember finding her hard to read. She was reasonably eloquent about explaining the case for Housing stock transfer, but we all know now that that wasn't enough to persuade Edinburgh tenants that she genuinely felt that stock transfer was the right way to go, and that she wasn't just pushing a new labour policy for the sake of it.  I somehow have a gut feeling that she will simply tow the party line were she to be elected. Lobby fodder for the westminster party elite - at least on the issues that matter to me at any rate.

And the LibDems? Well they haven't confirmed their candidate yet. So not much to go on there. They did get the 2nd largest share of the vote at the last general election, although now that Kenny MacKaskill is the SNP MSP there, George is seen as the main challenger these days. Besides, I find the LibDems the slipperiest of all political parties - what exactly would I be voting for if I voted LibDem? Without a face, I don't know. And besides, if they are 3rd place contenders now, they're not worth considering for a tactical vote.

So, if I were to tactically vote, what should I do?

If I felt that Labour would consider a 'stop the Tories' coaltion with the Libdems, then I might be persuaded to vote Labour to tactically push that alliance - not that the Lib/Lab coalition did much for the environment when in power in Scotland. I'm assuming Gordon would be kicked out whatever happens. In Westminster there's a chance they might do a bit better - again a gut feeling, based on the LibDem front bench in London.

Or should I hold my nose and vote SNP, increasing Georges chances of getting elected in the hope that he'll tow the 'no nuclear in Scotland' party line and rein in his Tory loving tendencies? Will Alex Salmond pull off his 20 MP's and will the numbers stuck up so that Westminster does indeed have to start dancing to Scottish jig? Another gut feeling, but that seems unlikely too. It seems more likely that the SNP block will end up larger, but ultimately they'll keep bleating pointlessly in Westminster, as irrelevant as usual. And besides, Nuclear power pledges aside, they SNP have not impressed me in government in Scotland.

Given all that murk and uncertainty, it seems I only have once choice afterall. To Vote Green - and hope that more people vote green too. We might not get an MP elected, but it may be the best way to put pressure on whoever does get elected to vote the right way on green issues. Of course, it would be nice to see the voting system changed, so that I didn't have to go through the process I've just been through. But until then...

 

Sunday
23Aug2009

Greens Zero Growth Call Is Dumb

You may not see explicit calls for 'zero growth' in any green party manifesto these days, but I still hear environmental activists celebrating the recession. This post was inspired by my frustration at the quality of the debate at the recent Festival of Politics Debate - 'From Economic Crash to Eco Recovery'. 

 

 

I'm a member of the Green party. I want them to get elected more often. But, in my opinion, one of the key issues that prevents the Greens from getting more votes is that apparent 'zero growth,' policy stance.

To many people, calling for Zero Growth sounds immoral. And in many senses it is. After all it is growth in our economy that pays for improvements to our health service, our education system and provides our pensions. Therefore when rich greens call for zero growth, and complain about our sick society that suffers so much from "affluenza," it is no wonder that it looks to poorer folk, who rely on what public services we have, as astonishing hypocrisy.

And then when poorer greens themselves argue for 'zero growth,' at best it can sound to many like a yearning for some romantic agricultural past when we were "poorer but happier". At worst it sounds naively anti-establishment. But the script is the same..

We are apparently more unhappy than ever before, or at least no happier because we have flat panel TVs....And so the standard pitch goes...The neo-malthusian mega crunch is impending any day now - and we're about to be hit by peak oil, peak wood, peak fish, peak water, peak food, and a climate change catastrophe in all places at once, and judgement day on the evil free market capitalists shall surely come. But those with solar panels on the roof shall be saved...to live in a steady state financial system that's a peaceful and ecologically harmonious utopia.

Whoops that last bit is never actually said, but often implied. Surely we need to change the record? Too many greens sound like crazed southern preachers to me. We all know Environmental Armageddon is a tough message to sell at the ballot box, so let's look for solutions, not add to the problem.

Greens have used the battering ram of science and rationality to win the early arguments on climate change. To a lesser extent, at least in Scotland, rational argument has won the day on the nuclear power debate too. Is there much rationality in the call for zero growth - or 'steady state' economics - if you prefer?

I don't see it. Economic growth is not the same as an increase in the use of physical resources - although historically they are closely correlated. To many greens the planet is a 'closed system', and therefore it is self evident there are limits to growth. There are undoubtedly limits to the growth of our use of finite resources, notably oil. But there are many resources in the world - and what we understand as global resource today, could be superseded, or augmented by other unimagined resources tomorrow. Even that closed system of 'renewable resources' is not as fixed as many people imagine.

For example, in many parts of our oceans we've long passed 'peak fish' - as local fisheries have been exploited beyond their 'maximum sustainable yield' (MSY). A short term boom, is followed by a long economic decline, as more and more fishermen scramble about for less and less fish. But in places where research and regulation work well together, fish stocks are showing some signs of recovery. And so, with improved knowledge and regulation the MSY from fisheries could grow. What green could argue against growth in a sustainably managed fishing industry?

The reality is, that for many of our renewable resources, from fish to fresh water, our local knowledge and the quality of our regulation is so poor, that we are miles from 'sustainable management.' Around the world, in many places, we know when we've over exploited our resources, our yields are starting to go down, but we haven't yet got the capability of stopping the decline in yields, let alone figuring out the best way to grow yields sustainably. Surely that is what Greens should be arguing for globally? A simplistic 'zero growth' stance, offers nothing to anyone.

And of course, the prices we pay for our resources are affected by more than just supply and demand. The global 'free' market is heavily regulated, and set up to benefit some and not others. That affects prices. Political instability affects prices. It's unlikely there will ever be a biblical style global environmental judgement day. Instead we'll probably see an increasing number of shocks to our system - these too will affect prices. So perhaps we should be looking again at nature for inspiration.

If Gaia really is self-regulating - how can we make our economic system more self-regulating? What can we learn from the most resilient ecosystems? How can we redesign our economy to make it more resilient, and better able to withstand external shocks? Nothing in nature is in stasis - so why should that be a green party policy aim for our economy?

Instead of zero growth - lets demand resilient growth, genuine sustainable growth, equitable growth and so forth. Significant changes to the way we regulate our economies to make them more sustainable are needed, and these will cause economic, and yes social, pain. We must do this if we are to prevent the greater catastrophe - runaway climate change. But, why then within this, do some Greens pour salt on the wound by demanding zero growth, or worse celebrating global recession, too?

As we've learnt, recessions mean a decline in the amount of cash to pay for pensions, health care, and all the other public services we rely on - and these things make us happy, even if we don't admit it when we're asked in surveys. These things are progress. As our population grows, it is growth in our economy that pays for these things and improves them. 

'More' is not always 'better' - that is obvious. But 'less', or even 'the same' is not always 'better' either. Given that we're going to struggle to support ourselves as it is, we're going to need as much "good growth" as we can get. Let's stop the 'zero growth' chat - and focus on working out what "good" growth actually is, and how we, as greens, might deliver it.

Monday
08Jun2009

Democracy Seems So Unfair Sometimes

If you're in the Greens that is.The Greens haven't had a reversal of fortune in the euro elections, far from it - although the Greens story is almost absent from the mainstream reporting. In fact they've grown their vote more than any other party nationally, and they seem to be well set-up for more electoral success in their stronghold areas down south, like Brighton.

The sad part is, this hasn't been enough to get the Greens more MEPs, and the gains aren't as big as I was hoping. Of course, I'm particularly disappointed that we didn't get a Green MSP in Scotland, although it looks as though the Greens took the biggest share of the vote in Scotland that they've ever taken. 

Nationally, the turn-out was dismal, and the disillusionment with 'business as usual' parties palpable. Politics seems to have splintered into all sorts of unpredictable and strange directions - the most inexplicable is the dirft to the right represented by the fact that the Tories vote held up, and a surprisingly strong UKIP vote. It is astonishing to see the Tories do so well in Wales, for example, whilst the SNP have also made history - coming top in a national poll for the first time.

The fact that the BNP gained two MEP's is really depressing, especially considering that less people voted for them in this election than in the last Euro election. So even though there has in reality been a downturn in support for the BNP, they have gained because so few people on the left bothered to vote.

In times of economic strife you'd perhaps expect Left leaning parties to do better. It's hardly a surprise that Labour are down. But I was surprised to see the LibDems down too. This seems to leave the Greens as the only 'progressive' left leaning party to have gained something out of these Euro elections. The trouble is that gain was not enough.

Saturday
08Nov2008

A Tale Of 3 Elections

"Naw they couldnae" as Holyrood Chronicles succinctly put it.

The SNP lost three out of 1, 2, 3 elections to Labour this week. Even though Labour themselves thought they were losing right up to the call. Needless to say Labour are delighted, nay overjoyed , at the fact that there seems to be some substance to the Brown bounce.

Are there lessons to learn from all this? In Glenrothes and Fife, Labour made astute candidate choices. They rejected the old guard, and chose new, but well kent, local faces with no previous public political convictions. This contrasts to the SNP whose candidates political exploits and ambitions were well known. The similarities don't stop there though.

In both Glenrothes and the Forth Ward, Labour could easily campaign on local social justice issues against the SNP who are in power in both local authorities. In Glenrothes, the issue was means tested care for the elderly. In Forth ward, the issue was the huge cuts made to a range of services in the area as a result of a reallocation of 'regeneration money,' to better off areas. Certainly there are people in Forth ward who almost take this personally and see it as Cllr Cardownies (the leader of the Edinburgh SNP group] personal crusade to settle old scores against his old Labour colleagues. Despite the fact that he defected to the SNP from Labour because he didn't like the New Labour drift to the right.

So local elections, won on local issues. But is that the whole story? It's notable that over in Baillieston Labour won, even when they control the local council, and in an area that had swung so far towards the SNP a few months before. Were those previous SNP victories down to local people punishing corrupt local Labour politicians and nothing to do with a general swing to the SNP afterall?

All the papers are claiming that the way Alex Salmond has handled the banking crisis has lost the SNP critical momentum, whilst Brown has benefited. There is perhaps some truth in this, but also I wonder whether there has been an "Obama effect" that has infused left leaning voters with a new confidence. I know - everyone is claiming an Obama effect on everything, but bear with me. Where people had become very cynical of the New Labour narrative, could it be that Obama has articulated a new vision of a vaguely progressive left politics that might rub off on voters wavering between the SNP and Labour?

Afterall, Obama has had more media covereage here than any of the local Scottish elections. And concious that this perhaps sounds trite, the US election has perhaps inspired people to believe in the power of democracy to change things and shown everyone that politics can be about a little bit more than just the narrow constitutional issues that animate the SNP. Whether it comes to pass or not, the hype around the Obama victory has given people hope that they can come together, despite their differences, around a progressive project. This message is anathema to the divisive politics of the SNP.

This, combined with the ongoing economic turmoil, says to me that parties that can successfully lay claim to some form of track record on social justice and dealing with crises are going to benefit. If this is the end of the SNP honeymoon, then it is because the gloss is coming off their populist polices for the people who aren't represented by a lobby group with a loud voice - the SNP losers. The fact is that the origninal lobby group for the poorest people in Scotland, who seem to be the main SNP losers - is the Labour party. Even if they haven't been very good at coming up with any solutions.

However, we can take the Obama link too far. His rhetorical skills may have encouraged people to lean leftwards, but his central theme was "change." And, the fact that Labour won all three elections means nothing will change locally. Labour are still in power in Glasgow and Westminster, and the balance of power in Edinburgh remains the same. It means the Gordon Brown will probably lead Labour into the next general election even if Labour in Westminster are still faced with the same problems. If Labour learn anything from this success, I'd hope it is that they must find a way to connect, and show they can move beyond the New Labour project. If Labour see this as an endorsement of the status quo and fail to change, then their traditional voters might yet be tempted to vote for another party instead come the next general election.

How did the other parties fair? The SNP did make gains on Labour in all the elections, but usually at the expense of the other parties and the LibDems in particular. The LibDems lost their deposit in Glenrothes,as they did in Glasgow East, coming in fourth behind the Tories. Tavish Scott must surely be starting to worry. It seems that far from challenging Labour, could it be that in some parts of Scotland the SNP are really becoming the credible protest vote for the more conservative, middle way, (with a small 'c') middle classes that the LibDems used to be?

The Greens stood in both council elections. Kate Joester, the Green candidate in Edinburgh did well to roughly hold onto the Green share of the vote, despite the SNP squeeze, so the Greens remain in fifth place in the ward. The talk in the Edinburgh branch is of how much extra work it would take to get Greens into fourth place. Afterall, it is a ward that elects 4 councillors. That is probably a decision that will need to be taken at the next local government elections. Sadly, the Green candidate in Glasgow got just 32 votes, beaten even by the BNP.

Friday
17Oct2008

Patter Swap

Nats seem to get all annoyed when people accuse them of being in bed with the Tories.  But if Alex Salmond  can't come up with any  new chat of his own, and borrows George Osbornes Tory conference lines about 'the age of irresponsibility' for the SNP conference, you can't blame people for putting 2 + 2 together and getting tartan Tories can you?

In a similar vain I was amused to hear the LibDems environment spokesman in Westminster, Steve Webb, comments on the exclusion of air travel and shipping emissions from the proposed UK Climate Change bill. Steve said:'It's like telling everyone you're going on a calorie controlled diet, but not counting cream cakes.'

Sounds familiar to me.

Is there a reality TV show in this? Er, probably not.

Tuesday
05Aug2008

Big Scots Candy Mountain


I found this illegal flyposter just up the road from where I work in Glasgow yesterday. For some reason, whenever I hear mention of an SSP policy I can't help but start to sing 'Big Rock Candy Mountain.'  The words of this fantastic tune are here.

Vote SSP and  you'll get cigarette trees, free kites and hens that lay soft boiled eggs  for sure.

Thursday
24Jul2008

Purcell Said It

I can't believe that Steven Purcell, the leader of Glasgow City Council actually said that 'a vote for the SNP is a vote for the Tories,' on Newsnight Scotland last night.

I wonder how many voters watching would actually believe that?

Doctor Vee is right. This is like watching the two biggest bullies in the playground fighting. No-one really likes either of them, but we keep watching to the bitter end anyway, as it's the only show in town.

It would have been nice if the BBC could have invited the Greens along to participate in the programme. Afterall, the Tories and the Libdems haven't a hope of winning whatsoever and they get invited on. In fact, the Greens have more local representation on the city council than the Tories and the same as the LibDems. So the BBC can hardly claim they are a fringe party.

It seemed somewhat ironic that the newsnight byelection set featured a green rosette in a prominent position and there was no-one there tor represent their views.

If they had been there, perhaps the level of debate might have risen above the 'ferrets in a sack' standard too?

Sunday
13Jul2008

Results of Glasgow East

Only a pure numpty would try to predict the outcome of any by-election, especially the Glasgow East one, especially two weeks before. That's what everyone on TV says just before they give their prediction of what the result will be, so I'm going to copy them, and get my oar stuck in early.

The papers insist that anything could happen but my gut feeling says I'm going to feel like I did when John Major was elected in 1992. Basically, just thoroughly flabbergasted that so many people could vote for the status quo.

Glasgow East is a place where voter apathy is the biggest issue. I meet folk in Glasgow all the time who say without any shred of embarrassment 'Politics? Nah I'm not into that stuff.' But, just like one of the guys in this video who's lived there his whole life, you can't blame people, when nothing does ever change. Labour have run Glasgow for decades and politics is done differently there. To  me it seems like everyone votes Labour, and then the real deals are done by 'big personalities' behind closed doors, in the mysterious web of trade unions, regeneration agencies, religious organisations, and council offices that run Glasgow. Or, if you believe one of my work colleagues, it's actually the other way around, and the voting is just a formality that happens after the decisions have been taken.

The last Scottish elections shook Glasgow up, and for the first time, there is some real local opposition and scrutiny in Glasgow, but it's going to take a long time for that reality to make a difference to the culture in Glasgow. People connected to Labour can still pull strings that other people can't. Sadly, I suspect that getting people in Glasgow East to vote for someone else apart from Labour is just as hard as challenging the culture of smoking, drinking, drug taking and fighting that blights the area. Which is a shame, as there are other parties, like the Greens, who in theory at least, have policies that should appeal to left leaning souls.

The SNP might be predicting an earthquake, but I reckon they'll not be sending anyone new to Westminster. Labour have carefully worked it out so that the voting is timed to coincide with the Glasgow fair holiday. That'll mean it'll only be the apathetic knife wielding Ballieston tongs (who won't vote) and the dyed in the wool red or dead auld folk left in the neighbourhood (who will.)

If you look at the stats then it's pretty clear that the SNP would need all of the Tory, Lib Dem and SSP votes just to come within spitting distance of Labour, and that kind of squeeze is hard to imagine. Of course, weird things happen in byelections, and the turn out will be much smaller, so even if things stand still the SNP will be able to claim they've reduced Labours majority. But I doubt they'll win.

Assuming Labours Margaret Curran does win, I suppose it'll mean political silver linings all around in some senses. Alex Salmond might be happy to see another Scottish Labour heavy weight (ahem) out of the race for the Holyrood Labour Leadership, and so will the other Labour leadership contenders. Not only would she leave the field slightly clearer for them, she'd make the local selection process easier when the Scottish MSP constituency boundaries are redrawn. And let's not forget Gordon Brown will be pretty relieved too - even if she's not his first choice.

That's assuming she quit her MSP post of course. At the moment she seems to be keeping her options open, although she did concede that that having an office in Westminster and Holyrood would be 'unsustainable in the long run.'

It does make you wonder whether Ms Curran reckons Alex Salmond has set a precedent. Could this be the start of worrying trend in Scottish politics - party leaders feeling the need to have a seat in both parliaments? Would Scottish folk stand for it? I hope not. 

To sum up. Labour win, but with a much reduced majority. SNP 2nd (swing from Lib Dems and Tories). Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems Squeezed) and Tories (squeezed, but less so) 3rd and 4th. Greens next. SSP and Solidarity split the socialist vote, consigning themselves to utter pointlessness (again).