News that there's to be another Scottish By-election that Labour will have to defend can only up the pressure on Brown, and the Scottish Labour party. With the Lib-dems and Labour still without a leader in Scotland, it looks as though this one could be carried by the SNP's seemingly unstoppable momentum. Recent polls, that have been sliced , diced and seasoned well by other scottish bloggers, seem to indicate that after the Glasgow East earthquake, the SNP should easily be due another win. 

This said, I think there'll be some serious local factors here. Not least, local sympathy for John MacDougall MP who seems to have had more local support after a long battle with serious illness. And whilst I don't know enough about the local politics in Fife to comment, I'm convinced of the point that Ideas of Civilisation makes about the influence of local politics on voting habits.

In Glasgow East, the local Labour party was mired in allegations of sleaze, so they got what they deserved. However, in Fife the SNP/Libdems are in charge of the council. If they've been making cuts that seem to target Labour heartland areas, like the SNP/Libdem coalition in Edinbrugh seems to be doing then I wonder whether that may help to support the Labour vote in this byelection?

Sure, just like everywhere else there is likely to be a massive protest vote in Fife, and the 10,000 lead John MacDougall had over the SNP is going to shrink. Unlike in Glasgow East, the 'protest vote' against Labour is more likely to be split between the LibDems and the SNP, even if the the LibDems don't have a leader. The constituency is more diverse, and Fife has a stronger LibDem vote. If Labour can stand the pressue, put on another slick campaign without imploding completely (which lets face it - is a big if) then I wonder whether they could have more luck here than in Glasgow East? 

A cynic might argue that actually Fife politics is all about which party can build the most toll free bridges into the Kingdom, given that half the people who live there seem to work elsewhere - in Dundee, Edinburgh or even Glasgow. The SNPs track record on tolls and their determination to build a second Forth crossing, even if it's not actually needed might be a vote winner for them, and given the Greens opposition to both of those proposals, they could lose votes on the bridge issue.

Whatever happens it would seem that there'll be a silver lining for folk like me. A Labour hold would wipe the smug smile of David Millibands face. And Alex Salmonds for that matter. Both worth seeing.

On the other hand, another Labour lose to the SNP, would hasten Gordon Browns departure, and it might even strenghten the hand of the the McCabe/Aitken school of thought who think Scottish Labour needs more decentralisation to fight the SNP.  Most people can see that this would mean that Labour might actually function as an opposition, even if the current labour leadership candidates won't come right out and admit it.

Assuming the Scottish Greens stand in this election, I'm hoping that they'll at least keep their deposit this time around.

Anyway, enough idle speculation from me, I suspect this is Doctor Vee's constituency, so it'll be interesting to hear what he has to say.