New Labour Tricks, Old Labour Policies
Thursday, November 27, 2008 at 08:59AM Personally, it seems to me that if you're not sure what to do, the best policy is to do nothing. Well we were told something had to be done, and Darling, with his hands on the levers of power has certainly shown he's not afraid to use them. But is the latest pre-budget report really the best he can come up with? It's a mixed bag indeed. And no-one seems to know whether it'll work or not.
No-one committed to a more progressive politics can fail to support the idea that the super rich should be taxed more. The top rate is only going to affect about 1.5% of the population, but it will raise a few billion quid. More equal societies have less crime, and more happy people. Therefore, any measure that will help to tackle the vast wealth gaps in this country should be welcomed. This move shows that Brown is making efforts to reconnect with the Labour core vote. I think they'll love to see the Fat Cats squeezed.
The trouble is, I see no economic logic to the rest of the measures. The cut in VAT is obviously supposed to encourage us to consume our way out of recession. Taken as a whole, it may mean a huge cut in income to the treasury but will individual consumers notice? Will shops pass on the cut? Will we go out and buy big ticket items if they're a few hundred quid cheaper? Am I more likely to go and buy a cheap toaster from Woolworths? Even if I did, is boosting consumption really the way out of this crisis? Trying to solve a housing and debt crisis by encouraging people to keep spending more is surely a little short sighted.
Yapping Yousuf tries to argue that cutting VAT is progressive, because the poorest pay proportionally more VAT than the rich. But, like the LibDems I'm not sure why, if Gordon Brown wanted a progressive, populist, measure, why didn't the government cut income tax rates for the poorest, or even better, why not make a temporary cut to National Insurance constributions shared between low wage workers and employers? This might help companies to avoid redundancies, whilst giving people a boost where they're going to notice it. In their pay packets. Instead, Labour have pencilled in a deferred increase to National Insurance contributions - even employers contributions will go up.
If it were me in the Treasury, I would have taken the opportunity to move taxes away from low wage work work and onto consumption, not away from it. A Green budget would have taxed airlines, private car use, and hydrocarbon fuels - all things the rich currently make a disproportionate use of. If UK plc is to grow sustainably, we must afterall learn to use energy more efficiently. Oil will not stay as cheap as it is now, and we must wean ourselves off it. Abandoning measures like changes to the VED to discourage innefficent cars, or delaying increases to fuel taxes will just increase the pain linked to future 'oil shocks.' The oil price will go up again, as soon as it looks as though the world economy has begun to turn the corner. This will act to dampen any rapid recovery - yet optimistically, Labour seem to be banking on a recovery in time for the next election.
In addition there are other ways to help fill that borrowing hole. Where is a commitment to take on the off shore tax havens favoured by the mega rich? It might take coordinated international action, but action on this front seems to have been quietly dropped.
It seems the Tories are right about one thing. The budget seems to be more about the political cycle than the economic cycle. From the tactical persective one has to have a bit of admiration for Brown. For now, he's pretty much shafted the Tories and indeed the SNP. Making them look weak and without answers, and giving them hard, hard choices for the future. Some people may welcome the return of old Labour, but could the same be said of a return to Thatcherism? I doubt Thatcherism has the same appeal. Politics is becoming slightly more polarised, as I doubt Cameron could follow Labour leftwards, even if he wanted to. The Tories must figure out how to avoid the 'nasty party' tag, whilst coming up with a convincing way forward of their own.
Regardless of whether Gordons gamble comes off one wonders how all this will play going into the next general election? Will the middle classes be willing to pay more taxes for lower quality public services, and see Browns government as the best of a bad lot, the proverbial steady hand on the tiller? Or will Labour be dismissed and replaced by the Tories, who will be left trying to square the circle of huge debts and tax commitments? Labour may have shocked and awed their oponents for the short term, but one can't help thinking Labour are playing a very, very high stakes game. And they're using our cash to do it.


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